Middle East war threatens African agriculture

As war rages in the Middle East, and Iran blocks shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, global attention focused on the impact on oil and gas supplies. Brent oil prices briefly soared to as high as $120 a barrel on Monday, around double their pre-war level, before dipping back to $87 a barrel by Wednesday - still 20% above the price before the US-Israeli attacks began on 28 February.

But the Gulf is not only important for oil and gas - the region is also key for global fertiliser supply. Iran itself, along with countries including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, are significant exporters of the ammonia, urea and phosphate fertilisers on which African agriculture depends. The region is also a leading source of natural gas, which is a critical input material in most types of fertiliser production.

In a statement, African Union chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf expressed "deep concern" over the situation, warning that attacks on critical infrastructure are "disrupting vital supply chains and having far-reaching implications for international trade and energy markets".

Price rises

Leeuwner Esterhuysen, senior economist at Oxford Economics Africa, tells African Business that an "immediate impact" of the crisis is higher prices for fertilisers. "Disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz - a key trade route for fertiliser and natural gas, which is a crucial input for fertiliser production - has tightened global supply conditions and pushed prices higher," he says.

Esterhuysen points out that fertiliser futures increased by more than 10% in some cases on the first day of trading after the war broke out. "On average, we expect global fertiliser prices to rise by nearly 17% in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period last year," he says. The situation is somewhat mitigated by the fact that crop markets are currently well-supplied, Esterhuysen adds.

"For African agriculture, the main risk is that higher fertiliser prices reduce usage among farmers, particularly smallholders with small margins. If that happens, it could weaken crop yields and plant health, potentially contributing to lower supply and higher food prices over time."

Poorest bear the brunt

Africa's oil and gas exporters, such as Nigeria and Angola, will reap some benefits from the current crisis, with higher than budgeted oil revenues helping to fill state coffers. Whether this has a positive impact on their economies overall is less certain, given that households and small businesses still tend to be exposed to the impact of oil price fluctuations - especially now that subsidies for petroleum products have been removed in countries such as Nigeria.

The UN trade body UNCTAD warned in a report on 10 March that spikes in oil and gas prices tend to produce corresponding rises in fertiliser prices, noting similar impacts during the Covid pandemic and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Much of the pain is ultimately passed on to consumers in the form of higher food prices, it added.

According to UNCTAD analysis, war-torn Sudan is the country most exposed to the crisis, given that 54% of its seaborne fertiliser imports originate in the Gulf. Tanzania, Somalia, Kenya and Mozambique are also likely to be among the worst-affected countries.

"The countries most exposed are those with large agricultural sectors but limited domestic fertiliser production, meaning they rely heavily on imported inputs," says Esterhuysen.

As well as East Africa, where Esterhuysen notes fertilisers are crucial for maize and wheat production, he says that several other African countries could also be heavily exposed.

"In West Africa, Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire could also be affected through export crops such as cocoa, where fertiliser use is important for preventing disease and bolstering yields," he says. "Countries with large fertiliser subsidy programmes - including Kenya and Nigeria - may also face fiscal pressure if governments step in to shield farmers from rising input costs."

Attempting to adapt

Part of the problem for African importers is that securing fertiliser from alternative sources is easier said than done, especially at a time when global supply of fertilisers and input materials are constrained.

"Importers may be able to source alternative cargoes from producers such as Russia, China, or Egypt, but doing so typically comes at higher prices and with longer delivery times," says Esterhuysen.

Much will depend on how long the conflict lasts. US President Donald Trump suggested on 9 March that the United States was "very close to finishing" its bombing campaign, although this stance has been contradicted by Trump himself as well as other US and Israeli officials. At the timne of writing the situation in the Strait of Hormuz appears to be deteriorating, with three ships attacked in the chokepoint on 11 March.

"In the short term, existing stocks and alternative shipping routes can help, but if the disruption continues, less fertiliser will be available, and prices are likely to stay high until shipping and production return to normal," says Esterhuysen.

Reaching for resilience

Several African countries have focused on building their own fertiliser production capacity in recent years. Zambia, for example, with support from the African Development Bank, invested heavily in rebuilding domestic fertiliser production after being hit hard by disruption to supply at the beginning of the Russia's war on-Ukraine.

"Repeated disruptions to global fertiliser supply chains strengthen the strategic case for expanding production capacity within Africa," says Esterhuysen. "Despite having significant natural gas and phosphate resources, much of the continent remains structurally dependent on imported fertiliser, which leaves agricultural sectors exposed to geopolitical shocks."

He points to the $2.5bn Dangote Fertiliser Plant in Nigeria, the world's second largest urea plant, as an example of how Africa can invest in improved infrastructure to reduce its reliance on imports. The Dangote Group signed a deal last year to build a similar facility in Ethiopia.

Meanwhile, the US non-profit group RMI (founded as the Rocky Mountain Institute) highlights how Africa has an opportunity to scale-up production of green ammonia for use as a fertiliser, which would reduce the need for - often imported - natural gas.

Yet the transformation will not happen overnight.

"Scaling fertiliser production across the continent requires substantial capital, a reliable gas supply, and stronger logistics infrastructure," says Esterhuysen. "While the long-term investment case is strengthening, it will take time before new capacity materially reduces Africa's exposure to global fertiliser market disruptions."